92nd Oscar predictions

Tomorrow morning, my annual high holy days kick off with the announcement of the nominees for the 92nd Academy Awards.

So, to kick off my new blog (why? why not?), here are some guesses on what might score nominations in the major categories, with some wishful thinking along the way.

Best Picture: Since the Academy switched things up a few years ago to allow up to 10 nominees in this category, it’s hard to say with any kind of certainty how many films will make the cut.

  • If six nominees: Parasite, The Irishman, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, 1917, Marriage Story, Joker
  • If seven: Jojo Rabbit
  • If eight: Little Women
  • If nine: Ford v. Ferrari
  • If 10: Knives Out? The Farewell? Pain and Glory?

Best Director: Here’s hoping Oscar voters won’t go for an all-male lineup like the Golden Globes, the BAFTAs and the Directors Guild of America did. If they really wanted to, in fact, voters could go for an all-female lineup here. HAHAHAHA, a pipe dream, I know.

  • Locks: Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time), Martin Scorsese (The Irishman), Sam Mendes (1917) and Bong Joon-ho (Parasite)
  • Possibles: Pedro Almodovar (Pain and Glory), Todd Phillips (Joker), Greta Gerwig (Little Women)
  • Also deserving: Lulu Wang (The Farewell), Lorene Scafaria (Hustlers), Celine Sciamma (Portrait of a Lady on Fire), Mati Diop (Atlantics), Alma Har’el (Honey Boy)

Best Actress: As with the director category, Oscar voters have a chance in the acting categories to make up for some egregious oversights among all of the precursors (particularly the BAFTAs) who chose all-white nominees.

  • Lock: Renee Zellweger (Judy)
  • Likely: Cynthia Erivo (Harriet), Saoirse Ronan (Little Women), Awkwafina (The Farewell)
  • Possibles: Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story), Lupita Nyong’o (Us), Charlize Theron (Bombshell)
  • Unlikely, but deserving: Alfre Woodard (Clemency)

Best Actor: This is one of the most competitive categories of the year, I’d say. When even Robert De Niro in a Martin Scorsese film seems like he’s on the bubble, anything could happen.

  • Locks: Adam Driver (Marriage Story), Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)
  • Likely: Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood), Robert De Niro (The Irishman)
  • Possibles: Taron Egerton (Rocketman), Eddie Murphy (Dolemite Is My Name), Adam Sandler (Uncut Gems), Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes), Christian Bale (Ford v. Ferrari), George MacKay (1917)

Best Supporting Actress:

  • Locks: Laura Dern (Marriage Story), Jennifer Lopez (Hustlers)
  • Likely: Margot Robbie (Bombshell), Zhao Shuzhen (The Farewell), Florence Pugh (Little Women)
  • Possibles: Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit), Margot Robbie (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood), Annette Bening (The Report)

Best Supporting Actor:

  • Locks: Al Pacino (The Irishman), Joe Pesci (The Irishman), Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
  • Likely: Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood), Song Kang Ho (Parasite)
  • Possibles: Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes), Alan Alda (Marriage Story), Jamie Foxx (Just Mercy)
  • Unlikely, but deserving: Willem Dafoe (The Lighthouse)

Best Original Screenplay:

  • Locks: Marriage Story, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Parasite
  • Likely: Knives Out, Uncut Gems, Pain and Glory
  • Possibles: Bombshell, The Farewell, 1917, Booksmart

Best Adapted Screenplay:

  • Locks: Jojo Rabbit, The Irishman, Little Women, Joker
  • Likely: The Two Popes, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
  • Possibles: Just Mercy, Hustlers

Best Animated Feature:

  • Locks: Frozen II, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, Toy Story 4, Missing Link
  • Likely: Abominable, I Lost My Body
  • Possibles: Weathering with You, Klaus

Watch here after the nominees are announced for my thoughts on each of the nominated films. This will be the seventh year I’ve attempted to see all of the nominees before the awards ceremony, and with any luck, it’ll be my third year in a row to succeed. Play along with me, won’t you?

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